The Rise of Fiscal Capacity — expanded estimators

Archive index · Regression tests · Results & settings (JSON) · Methods & code

Cantoni et al. (2024), ECMA. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20612

14 specifications. Effects are in outcome standard deviations; intervals are 95%.

Treatment adoption

Treatment adoption timing

S18-P003: seeded sample of 10 of 10 eligible units. Purple untreated; yellow treated; white unobserved.

FISCAL-F1B-SIZE

FISCAL-F1B-SIZE · S18-P001 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P001: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.230 0.062 [0.108, 0.351] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.299 0.074 [0.153, 0.444] equal_periods
BJS / did2s 0.396 0.090 [0.219, 0.573] equal_periods
Sun–Abraham 0.298 0.022 [0.254, 0.342] equal_periods
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.270 0.086 [0.100, 0.439] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.194 0.073 [0.050, 0.338] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.290 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-F2A-COMPACT-TERRITORY

FISCAL-F2A-COMPACT-TERRITORY · S18-P002 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P002: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.180 0.059 [0.063, 0.297] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.241 0.076 [0.092, 0.389] equal_periods
BJS / did2s 0.307 0.101 [0.108, 0.506] equal_periods
Sun–Abraham 0.233 0.025 [0.184, 0.283] equal_periods
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.221 0.101 [0.022, 0.419] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.157 0.072 [0.016, 0.297] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.216 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-F5A-MARRIAGE-RULERS

FISCAL-F5A-MARRIAGE-RULERS · S18-P003 · Data & fit details

1,198 observations · 10 units · 10 clusters · 6 treated / 4 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P003: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.444 0.446 [-0.564, 1.452] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.618 0.680 [-0.920, 2.156] equal_periods
BJS / did2s 0.507 0.537 [-0.709, 1.723] equal_periods
CS-DID (equal event-time) 1.024 0.594 [-0.141, 2.188] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.947 0.560 [-0.151, 2.046] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.596 — — Treated cells
Horizontal ridge -0.104 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study Horizontal ridge event study

FISCAL-F5B-MARRIAGE-LAND

FISCAL-F5B-MARRIAGE-LAND · S18-P004 · Data & fit details

1,198 observations · 10 units · 10 clusters · 6 treated / 4 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P004: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.251 0.341 [-0.521, 1.022] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.196 0.542 [-1.029, 1.421] equal_periods
BJS / did2s 0.096 0.370 [-0.741, 0.933] equal_periods
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.304 0.557 [-0.787, 1.395] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.380 0.539 [-0.677, 1.437] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.109 — — Treated cells
Horizontal ridge -0.154 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study Horizontal ridge event study

FISCAL-T2-C1-VANISH-CONFLICT

FISCAL-T2-C1-VANISH-CONFLICT · S18-P005 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P005: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE -0.040 0.007 [-0.054, -0.026] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE -0.030 0.014 [-0.058, -0.002] Treated cells
BJS / did2s -0.037 0.007 [-0.051, -0.023] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham -0.038 0.010 [-0.058, -0.018] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) -0.020 0.010 [-0.040, -0.001] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) -0.019 0.011 [-0.042, 0.003] Treated cells
SDID -0.017 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study SDID event study

FISCAL-T2-C3-VANISH-PURCHASE

FISCAL-T2-C3-VANISH-PURCHASE · S18-P006 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P006: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE -0.021 0.006 [-0.031, -0.010] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE -0.008 0.016 [-0.039, 0.023] Treated cells
BJS / did2s -0.018 0.006 [-0.029, -0.007] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.009 0.018 [-0.027, 0.045] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.024 0.028 [-0.030, 0.079] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.022 0.024 [-0.025, 0.070] Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study

FISCAL-T2-C5-VANISH-EXTINCTION

FISCAL-T2-C5-VANISH-EXTINCTION · S18-P007 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P007: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.016 0.027 [-0.038, 0.070] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.039 0.028 [-0.017, 0.094] Treated cells
BJS / did2s -0.006 0.016 [-0.038, 0.026] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.022 0.017 [-0.011, 0.055] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.047 0.029 [-0.010, 0.104] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.042 0.025 [-0.007, 0.091] Treated cells
SDID 0.021 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study SDID event study

FISCAL-T3-C1-SIZE-SINGLE

FISCAL-T3-C1-SIZE-SINGLE · S18-P008 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P008: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.230 0.062 [0.108, 0.351] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.222 0.063 [0.097, 0.346] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.312 0.080 [0.155, 0.469] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.214 0.016 [0.182, 0.246] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.270 0.086 [0.100, 0.439] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.194 0.073 [0.050, 0.338] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.290 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-T3-C3-SIZE-UNCONTESTED

FISCAL-T3-C3-SIZE-UNCONTESTED · S18-P009 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P009: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.182 0.050 [0.084, 0.280] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.189 0.059 [0.074, 0.304] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.275 0.069 [0.140, 0.410] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.184 0.018 [0.148, 0.220] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.249 0.085 [0.082, 0.416] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.180 0.067 [0.048, 0.311] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.257 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-T3-C5-SIZE-ALL

FISCAL-T3-C5-SIZE-ALL · S18-P010 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P010: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.171 0.051 [0.071, 0.271] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.180 0.061 [0.060, 0.300] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.259 0.074 [0.114, 0.405] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.178 0.017 [0.146, 0.211] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.239 0.087 [0.069, 0.410] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.173 0.071 [0.034, 0.312] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.242 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-T4-C1-COMPACT-TERRITORY

FISCAL-T4-C1-COMPACT-TERRITORY · S18-P011 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P011: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.180 0.059 [0.063, 0.297] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.184 0.059 [0.068, 0.300] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.229 0.074 [0.085, 0.374] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham 0.164 0.018 [0.128, 0.200] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.221 0.101 [0.022, 0.419] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.157 0.072 [0.016, 0.297] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.216 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study

FISCAL-T8-C1-MARRIAGE-RULERS

FISCAL-T8-C1-MARRIAGE-RULERS · S18-P012 · Data & fit details

1,198 observations · 10 units · 10 clusters · 6 treated / 4 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P012: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.444 0.446 [-0.564, 1.452] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.612 0.586 [-0.714, 1.939] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.480 0.544 [-0.749, 1.710] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 1.024 0.594 [-0.141, 2.188] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.947 0.560 [-0.151, 2.046] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.596 — — Treated cells
Horizontal ridge -0.104 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study Horizontal ridge event study

FISCAL-T8-C3-MARRIAGE-LAND

FISCAL-T8-C3-MARRIAGE-LAND · S18-P013 · Data & fit details

1,198 observations · 10 units · 10 clusters · 6 treated / 4 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P013: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE 0.251 0.341 [-0.521, 1.022] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE 0.256 0.482 [-0.835, 1.346] Treated cells
BJS / did2s 0.145 0.364 [-0.678, 0.969] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) 0.304 0.557 [-0.787, 1.395] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) 0.380 0.539 [-0.677, 1.437] Treated cells
Matrix completion 0.109 — — Treated cells
Horizontal ridge -0.154 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study Matrix completion event study Horizontal ridge event study

FISCAL-T9-C1-VANISH-NOEXT

FISCAL-T9-C1-VANISH-NOEXT · S18-P014 · Data & fit details

101,998 observations · 618 units · 618 clusters · 30 treated / 588 control units.

Estimate comparison

S18-P014: point estimates, targets and available 95% intervals
Estimator Estimate (SDs) SE 95% CI Averaging
Static TWFE -0.045 0.007 [-0.058, -0.031] Coefficient
Dynamic TWFE -0.029 0.014 [-0.056, -0.002] Treated cells
BJS / did2s -0.041 0.007 [-0.055, -0.027] Treated cells
Sun–Abraham -0.026 0.013 [-0.053, -0.000] Treated cells
CS-DID (equal event-time) -0.003 0.017 [-0.037, 0.031] Equal post-event times
CS-DID (treated cells) -0.003 0.016 [-0.034, 0.027] Treated cells
SDID -0.013 — — Treated cells
Event studies

Periods −10 to +10; pointwise 95% intervals where available.

Dynamic TWFE event study Sun–Abraham event study BJS / did2s event study CS-DID event study SDID event study