The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China

All papers and comparison plots · Results JSON · Quarto source

4 of 4 registered specifications have estimates. Every registered specification appears below.

Martinez-Bravo et al. (2022), AER. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181249

Data and estimation

Outcomes are divided by their unweighted source-sample standard deviation (ddof=1), before exclusions; they are not centered. Treatment adoption is the first observed treated period. Models share an eligible sample, fixed effects, controls and weights. Initially treated units, missing −1 baselines and unsupported untreated-outcome predictions are removed. For switching treatments, untreated rows after first adoption are removed. Exact counts and settings are in the JSON.

Static TWFE uses the treatment indicator. Dynamic TWFE omits event time −1. BJS/did2s fits untreated outcomes, then averages imputation residuals. Sun–Abraham estimates cohort-by-event-time effects. The three dynamic estimates share post-period aggregation weights. Event-study tails are unbinned. These are common-sample reruns, not Peter’s original estimator-specific sample and tail-binning rules.

The homogeneity test restricts identified cohort deviations at positive event times to zero; leads and event time 0 remain unrestricted. It is a homoskedastic nested-model F-test. Estimate intervals are separately cluster-robust, with the did2s two-stage correction. Large panels use algebraically equivalent sparse regressions; backend and validation results are recorded in JSON.

Adoption timing

Treatment adoption timing

S12-P001: seeded sample of 13 of 13 eligible units. Purple untreated; yellow treated; white unobserved. Calendar periods follow the configured time grid. Each specification uses its own full eligible sample.

Specification Status F_pvalue Static TWFE Dynamic TWFE BJS / did2s Sun–Abraham
S12-P001 estimated 0 -0.01422 -0.01467 0.0859 0.0859
S12-P002 estimated 0.9991 -0.1347 0.3012 0.3186 0.4546
S12-P003 estimated 1.455e-13 -0.0002212 -0.003676 0.02281 0.02439
S12-P004 estimated 1 0.1889 0.03766 0.04435 -0.02743

Specifications

Open a specification for its estimates, event studies and homogeneity test. Plots display −10 through 10; JSON contains the full paths. Large-panel intervals are calculated over the displayed window.

S12-P001 · LOCAL-ELECTIONS-T5-C3-LAND-EXPROPRIATION · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

Indicator for expropriation of village land

Source rows: 4,340; fitted rows: 195; units: 13; clusters: 13; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 0.13858606.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.014223 0.055063 -0.1342 0.10575
Dynamic TWFE -0.014667 0.08272 -0.1949 0.16556
BJS / did2s 0.085902 0.079529 -0.087378 0.25918
Sun–Abraham 0.085902 2.3384e-15 0.085902 0.085902

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(48, 42) = 1.337e+29; p = 0.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S12-P002 · LOCAL-ELECTIONS-T5-C3-ONE-CHILD

Specification JSON · Configuration

Number of one-child-policy exemptions granted by the village government

Source rows: 4,340; fitted rows: 195; units: 13; clusters: 13; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 0.49752783.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.1347 0.21611 -0.60555 0.33615
Dynamic TWFE 0.3012 0.29645 -0.34471 0.94712
BJS / did2s 0.31858 0.19656 -0.10969 0.74684
Sun–Abraham 0.45463 0.10108 0.2344 0.67486

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(48, 42) = 0.3899; p = 0.9991.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S12-P003 · LOCAL-ELECTIONS-T5-C3-PUBLIC-GOODS · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

Public-goods expenditure funded by villagers (10,000 constant RMB)

Source rows: 4,340; fitted rows: 195; units: 13; clusters: 13; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 117.72847.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.00022118 0.017308 -0.037931 0.037489
Dynamic TWFE -0.0036764 0.029763 -0.068525 0.061172
BJS / did2s 0.022812 0.021651 -0.024361 0.069985
Sun–Abraham 0.024393 0.009445 0.0038138 0.044972

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(48, 42) = 11.92; p = 1.455e-13.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S12-P004 · LOCAL-ELECTIONS-T5-C3-VC-UNILATERAL

Specification JSON · Configuration

Sum of policies unilaterally decided by the elected village committee chairman

Source rows: 4,340; fitted rows: 195; units: 13; clusters: 13; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 1.30195.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE 0.18887 0.15723 -0.15372 0.53145
Dynamic TWFE 0.037662 0.11113 -0.20446 0.27979
BJS / did2s 0.044351 0.07047 -0.10919 0.19789
Sun–Abraham -0.027431 0.16605 -0.38923 0.33437

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(48, 42) = 0.2357; p = 1.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations

Reproduce

Code, configurations and environments · Generic Quarto template · Editable Jot template. Source datasets remain local. Run python templates/full_archive/run_archive.py, then python templates/full_archive/build_collection.py.