Do Powerful Politicians Really Cause Corporate Downsizing?

All papers and comparison plots · Results JSON · Quarto source

21 of 21 registered specifications have estimates. Every registered specification appears below.

Snyder and Welch (2017), JPE. https://doi.org/10.1086/694204

Data and estimation

Outcomes are divided by their unweighted source-sample standard deviation (ddof=1), before exclusions; they are not centered. Treatment adoption is the first observed treated period. Models share an eligible sample, fixed effects, controls and weights. Initially treated units, missing −1 baselines and unsupported untreated-outcome predictions are removed. For switching treatments, untreated rows after first adoption are removed. Exact counts and settings are in the JSON.

Static TWFE uses the treatment indicator. Dynamic TWFE omits event time −1. BJS/did2s fits untreated outcomes, then averages imputation residuals. Sun–Abraham estimates cohort-by-event-time effects. The three dynamic estimates share post-period aggregation weights. Event-study tails are unbinned. These are common-sample reruns, not Peter’s original estimator-specific sample and tail-binning rules.

The homogeneity test restricts identified cohort deviations at positive event times to zero; leads and event time 0 remain unrestricted. It is a homoskedastic nested-model F-test. Estimate intervals are separately cluster-robust, with the did2s two-stage correction. Large panels use algebraically equivalent sparse regressions; backend and validation results are recorded in JSON.

Adoption timing

Treatment adoption timing

S02-P017: seeded sample of 100 of 8,642 eligible units. Purple untreated; yellow treated; white unobserved. Calendar periods follow the configured time grid. Each specification uses its own full eligible sample.

Specification Status F_pvalue Static TWFE Dynamic TWFE BJS / did2s Sun–Abraham
S02-P001 estimated 0.001938 -0.1011 0.01896 -0.1174 0.02709
S02-P002 estimated — -0.21 -0.05208 -0.2094 -0.05455
S02-P003 estimated — -0.2738 -0.2439 -0.3548 —
S02-P004 estimated 8.797e-05 -0.1412 -0.0158 -0.1701 -0.01624
S02-P005 estimated — -0.2544 -0.2423 -0.3367 —
S02-P006 estimated 0.001435 -0.03226 0.06405 -0.05541 0.07063
S02-P007 estimated — -0.2162 -0.1301 -0.2114 -0.1335
S02-P008 estimated — -0.1779 -0.1066 -0.2196 —
S02-P009 estimated 0.1746 -0.08544 -0.02415 -0.09136 -0.02445
S02-P010 estimated — -0.1563 -0.0939 -0.1981 —
S02-P011 estimated 2.051e-08 -0.01258 0.1226 -0.0309 0.1306
S02-P012 estimated — -0.2532 -0.1092 -0.258 -0.1117
S02-P013 estimated — -0.2673 -0.2599 -0.3473 —
S02-P014 estimated 3.135e-05 -0.08297 0.0416 -0.1009 0.04343
S02-P015 estimated — -0.2322 -0.2288 -0.3078 —
S02-P016 estimated 0.9896 -0.02155 -0.01739 -0.03331 -0.01927
S02-P017 estimated — -0.02326 -0.003385 -0.0249 -0.00376
S02-P018 estimated — -0.02929 -0.008695 -0.02048 —
S02-P019 estimated 0.9882 -0.01853 0.002122 -0.01887 0.001593
S02-P020 estimated — -0.02561 -0.006895 -0.01891 —
S02-P021 estimated 0.6637 0.009095 -0.03808 0.0006651 -0.03426

Specifications

Open a specification for its estimates, event studies and homogeneity test. Plots display −10 through 10; JSON contains the full paths. Large-panel intervals are calculated over the displayed window.

S02-P001 · AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-ACTUAL · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-ACTUAL

Source rows: 168,975; fitted rows: 160,503; units: 14,831; clusters: 2,018; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.1005796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.10113 0.044221 -0.18786 -0.014409
Dynamic TWFE 0.018958 0.09568 -0.16868 0.2066
BJS / did2s -0.11738 0.053783 -0.22285 -0.011899
Sun–Abraham 0.027091 0.013219 0.0011672 0.053014

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(20, 145502) = 2.159; p = 0.001938.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P002 · AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-NOOV-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-NOOV-M1

Source rows: 168,975; fitted rows: 158,170; units: 14,949; clusters: 2,015; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.1005796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.21 0.16082 -0.52539 0.10539
Dynamic TWFE -0.052075 0.17765 -0.40047 0.29632
BJS / did2s -0.2094 0.18392 -0.5701 0.1513
Sun–Abraham -0.054554 0.016532 -0.086976 -0.022133

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

No identified positive-event-time cohort deviations remain to test.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P003 · AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-NOOV-M4M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-NOOV-M4M1

Source rows: 168,975; fitted rows: 157,555; units: 14,903; clusters: 2,013; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.1005796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.27382 0.086472 -0.4434 -0.10424
Dynamic TWFE -0.24392 0.079576 -0.39998 -0.087856
BJS / did2s -0.35481 0.1339 -0.61741 -0.092201

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P004 · AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-QP-M1 · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-QP-M1

Source rows: 168,975; fitted rows: 159,423; units: 14,746; clusters: 2,018; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 0.1005796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.14123 0.051931 -0.24308 -0.03939
Dynamic TWFE -0.015799 0.07549 -0.16385 0.13225
BJS / did2s -0.17009 0.066542 -0.30059 -0.039594
Sun–Abraham -0.016239 0.014727 -0.045122 0.012643

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(29, 144463) = 2.296; p = 8.797e-05.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P005 · AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-QP-M4

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-CAPEX-QP-M4

Source rows: 168,975; fitted rows: 156,920; units: 14,712; clusters: 2,012; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.1005796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.25435 0.071402 -0.39438 -0.11432
Dynamic TWFE -0.24235 0.074095 -0.38766 -0.097036
BJS / did2s -0.33671 0.11046 -0.55334 -0.12008

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P006 · AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-ACTUAL · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-ACTUAL

Source rows: 168,267; fitted rows: 159,985; units: 14,759; clusters: 2,018; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.31813134.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.032262 0.029039 -0.089211 0.024687
Dynamic TWFE 0.064054 0.10077 -0.13357 0.26168
BJS / did2s -0.055408 0.028173 -0.11066 -0.0001577
Sun–Abraham 0.070634 0.015098 0.041025 0.10024

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(20, 145055) = 2.208; p = 0.001435.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P007 · AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-NOOV-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-NOOV-M1

Source rows: 168,267; fitted rows: 157,949; units: 14,885; clusters: 2,013; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.31813134.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.21617 0.12473 -0.46078 0.028436
Dynamic TWFE -0.13006 0.12346 -0.37218 0.11206
BJS / did2s -0.21145 0.15154 -0.50863 0.085743
Sun–Abraham -0.13345 0.016666 -0.16613 -0.10077

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

No identified positive-event-time cohort deviations remain to test.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P008 · AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-NOOV-M4M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-NOOV-M4M1

Source rows: 168,267; fitted rows: 157,219; units: 14,831; clusters: 2,010; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.31813134.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.17791 0.044271 -0.26473 -0.091087
Dynamic TWFE -0.10664 0.059977 -0.22426 0.010985
BJS / did2s -0.21958 0.052298 -0.32215 -0.11702

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P009 · AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-QP-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-QP-M1

Source rows: 168,267; fitted rows: 158,933; units: 14,681; clusters: 2,018; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 0.31813134.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.085438 0.040893 -0.16564 -0.0052401
Dynamic TWFE -0.024149 0.049449 -0.12113 0.072828
BJS / did2s -0.091359 0.041559 -0.17286 -0.0098566
Sun–Abraham -0.024452 0.013256 -0.050449 0.0015457

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(26, 144036) = 1.253; p = 0.1746.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P010 · AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-QP-M4

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DEMP-QP-M4

Source rows: 168,267; fitted rows: 156,719; units: 14,659; clusters: 2,011; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.31813134.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.15626 0.034424 -0.22377 -0.088749
Dynamic TWFE -0.093897 0.055686 -0.20311 0.015311
BJS / did2s -0.19812 0.042882 -0.28221 -0.11402

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P011 · AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-ACTUAL · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-ACTUAL

Source rows: 181,489; fitted rows: 172,342; units: 15,535; clusters: 2,028; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.44138796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.012582 0.034463 -0.080169 0.055004
Dynamic TWFE 0.12262 0.12895 -0.13027 0.37551
BJS / did2s -0.030896 0.035732 -0.10097 0.039179
Sun–Abraham 0.13061 0.015774 0.099674 0.16154

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(20, 156636) = 3.788; p = 2.051e-08.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P012 · AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-NOOV-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-NOOV-M1

Source rows: 181,489; fitted rows: 170,067; units: 15,686; clusters: 2,024; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.44138796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.25316 0.13765 -0.52311 0.016786
Dynamic TWFE -0.10919 0.1386 -0.38101 0.16264
BJS / did2s -0.25798 0.17594 -0.60302 0.08706
Sun–Abraham -0.11175 0.018401 -0.14783 -0.075658

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

No identified positive-event-time cohort deviations remain to test.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P013 · AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-NOOV-M4M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-NOOV-M4M1

Source rows: 181,489; fitted rows: 169,446; units: 15,631; clusters: 2,021; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.44138796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.26727 0.053954 -0.37308 -0.16146
Dynamic TWFE -0.25993 0.045414 -0.349 -0.17087
BJS / did2s -0.34728 0.07372 -0.49185 -0.2027

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P014 · AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-QP-M1 · homogeneity rejected

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-QP-M1

Source rows: 181,489; fitted rows: 171,347; units: 15,459; clusters: 2,028; treated cohorts: 8. Source outcome SD: 0.44138796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.082966 0.044801 -0.17083 0.0048954
Dynamic TWFE 0.041599 0.054028 -0.064356 0.14755
BJS / did2s -0.10091 0.048851 -0.19671 -0.0051059
Sun–Abraham 0.043432 0.015365 0.013299 0.073566

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(29, 155669) = 2.41; p = 3.135e-05.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P015 · AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-QP-M4

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-DSALES-QP-M4

Source rows: 181,489; fitted rows: 168,711; units: 15,419; clusters: 2,020; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.44138796.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.23216 0.043546 -0.31756 -0.14676
Dynamic TWFE -0.22883 0.037472 -0.30232 -0.15534
BJS / did2s -0.3078 0.058469 -0.42247 -0.19313

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P016 · AM005-P2587-T2-RD-ACTUAL

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-RD-ACTUAL

Source rows: 87,865; fitted rows: 83,997; units: 8,574; clusters: 1,918; treated cohorts: 6. Source outcome SD: 0.1334262.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.021555 0.012795 -0.046648 0.0035393
Dynamic TWFE -0.017391 0.018838 -0.054336 0.019554
BJS / did2s -0.033307 0.015873 -0.064438 -0.0021761
Sun–Abraham -0.01927 0.010652 -0.04016 0.0016203

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(20, 75265) = 0.4155; p = 0.9896.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P017 · AM005-P2587-T2-RD-NOOV-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-RD-NOOV-M1

Source rows: 87,865; fitted rows: 83,423; units: 8,642; clusters: 1,911; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.1334262.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.023256 0.013863 -0.050445 0.0039324
Dynamic TWFE -0.0033845 0.013676 -0.030206 0.023437
BJS / did2s -0.024899 0.010629 -0.045745 -0.0040527
Sun–Abraham -0.0037596 0.01011 -0.023587 0.016068

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

No identified positive-event-time cohort deviations remain to test.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P018 · AM005-P2587-T2-RD-NOOV-M4M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-RD-NOOV-M4M1

Source rows: 87,865; fitted rows: 83,038; units: 8,586; clusters: 1,911; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.1334262.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.029289 0.009369 -0.047664 -0.010915
Dynamic TWFE -0.0086952 0.012547 -0.033303 0.015913
BJS / did2s -0.02048 0.010899 -0.041855 0.00089464

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P019 · AM005-P2587-T2-RD-QP-M1

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-RD-QP-M1

Source rows: 87,865; fitted rows: 83,517; units: 8,531; clusters: 1,916; treated cohorts: 7. Source outcome SD: 0.1334262.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.018532 0.011688 -0.041453 0.0043902
Dynamic TWFE 0.0021215 0.018263 -0.033697 0.03794
BJS / did2s -0.018865 0.013616 -0.045569 0.0078377
Sun–Abraham 0.0015927 0.0075387 -0.013192 0.016378

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(20, 74811) = 0.4241; p = 0.9882.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P020 · AM005-P2587-T2-RD-QP-M4

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T2-RD-QP-M4

Source rows: 87,865; fitted rows: 82,596; units: 8,499; clusters: 1,914; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.1334262.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE -0.025609 0.0081311 -0.041556 -0.0096625
Dynamic TWFE -0.0068945 0.011355 -0.029164 0.015375
BJS / did2s -0.018913 0.0086271 -0.035832 -0.0019932

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(—, —) = —; p = —.

The saturated and imported deviations designs do not span the same fitted model on this sparse panel. Test withheld.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations
S02-P021 · AM005-P2587-T3-R3-NOTEXAS

Specification JSON · Configuration

AM005-P2587-T3-R3-NOTEXAS

Source rows: 153,624; fitted rows: 148,721; units: 13,551; clusters: 49; treated cohorts: 5. Source outcome SD: 0.095811293.

method estimate se lower upper
Static TWFE 0.0090945 0.020985 -0.033098 0.051287
Dynamic TWFE -0.038077 0.022862 -0.084044 0.0078911
BJS / did2s 0.00066505 0.021731 -0.043028 0.044358
Sun–Abraham -0.034259 0.013126 -0.060649 -0.0078679

Post-period weighting: observations. Homogeneity F(15, 135024) = 0.8135; p = 0.6637.

TWFE, imputation, saturated event studies and cohort deviations

Reproduce

Code, configurations and environments · Generic Quarto template · Editable Jot template. Source datasets remain local. Run python templates/full_archive/run_archive.py, then python templates/full_archive/build_collection.py.