{
  "study": "Credit Markets Property Rights and the Commons",
  "sample": {
    "outcome": "y",
    "treatment": "d",
    "source_rows": 39432,
    "source_sd": 1.329171187176219,
    "rows": 38319,
    "units": 723,
    "clusters": 47,
    "treated_units": 529,
    "never_treated_units": 194,
    "treated_cohorts": 15,
    "latest_cohort_control_index": null,
    "unique_unit_period_cells": 38319,
    "unsupported_prediction_rows_removed": 0,
    "rows_without_never_control_time_fe_removed": 0,
    "initially_treated_units_removed": 21,
    "post_adoption_untreated_rows_removed": 0,
    "units_without_minus_one_removed": 0,
    "additional_rows_removed": 0
  },
  "target": "All 17,811 treated cells; outcome divided by source SD",
  "models": [
    {
      "method": "MTGP MAP",
      "class": "mtgpax.gp.map.MTGPCausalEstimator",
      "parameters": {
        "rank": 1,
        "num_steps": 1500,
        "learning_rate": 0.03,
        "seed": 0,
        "scalar_effect": false,
        "additive_fixed_effects": false
      },
      "estimate": -0.5163218107795372,
      "event_study": [
        {
          "event_time": 0,
          "estimate": -0.05734933600916601,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 1,
          "estimate": -0.11587248004911586,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 2,
          "estimate": -0.14057750880717873,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 3,
          "estimate": -0.14500395453214815,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 4,
          "estimate": -0.12708968649629704,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 5,
          "estimate": -0.14388186694389082,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 6,
          "estimate": -0.14678526192092933,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 7,
          "estimate": -0.15600167932615805,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 8,
          "estimate": -0.13672710695246018,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 9,
          "estimate": -0.14481707074999017,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 10,
          "estimate": -0.148016094084993,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 11,
          "estimate": -0.21086805864215277,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 12,
          "estimate": -0.2677538689702362,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 13,
          "estimate": -0.3204186070735062,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 14,
          "estimate": -0.3233292856719435,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 15,
          "estimate": -0.3563249649070007,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 16,
          "estimate": -0.4101849487237548,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 17,
          "estimate": -0.512375785157418,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 18,
          "estimate": -0.5535221450293322,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 19,
          "estimate": -0.5964917256279353,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 20,
          "estimate": -0.6475050771263149,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 21,
          "estimate": -0.6696766036644238,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 22,
          "estimate": -0.7311566565576936,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 23,
          "estimate": -0.7677721284554714,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 24,
          "estimate": -0.8068962702732159,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 25,
          "estimate": -0.8038389528566211,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 26,
          "estimate": -0.8323723697043549,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 27,
          "estimate": -0.8857741114530057,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 28,
          "estimate": -0.9285771689688035,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 29,
          "estimate": -0.9737885064078561,
          "n": 499
        },
        {
          "event_time": 30,
          "estimate": -0.835272245792508,
          "n": 417
        },
        {
          "event_time": 31,
          "estimate": -0.8963882285570566,
          "n": 413
        },
        {
          "event_time": 32,
          "estimate": -0.9222204635631307,
          "n": 413
        },
        {
          "event_time": 33,
          "estimate": -0.9391629856929155,
          "n": 406
        },
        {
          "event_time": 34,
          "estimate": -0.9839996889982523,
          "n": 360
        },
        {
          "event_time": 35,
          "estimate": -1.1217160175671657,
          "n": 279
        },
        {
          "event_time": 36,
          "estimate": -1.9116121779034072,
          "n": 24
        },
        {
          "event_time": 37,
          "estimate": -3.091747871700224,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 38,
          "estimate": -3.2687480985772823,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 39,
          "estimate": -3.127428166340622,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 40,
          "estimate": -3.1917423516584074,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 41,
          "estimate": -3.1075117762670486,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 42,
          "estimate": -3.6561103810949698,
          "n": 13
        },
        {
          "event_time": 43,
          "estimate": -3.857067278295725,
          "n": 13
        },
        {
          "event_time": 44,
          "estimate": -3.6789903327382887,
          "n": 11
        },
        {
          "event_time": 45,
          "estimate": -3.7526213625344043,
          "n": 11
        }
      ],
      "diagnostics": {
        "loss_initial": 3.6284053325653076,
        "loss_final": 0.43521931767463684,
        "loss_history": [
          3.6284053325653076,
          0.5546747446060181,
          0.49252259731292725,
          0.45067715644836426,
          0.4409230649471283,
          0.43681108951568604,
          0.4344900846481323,
          0.43360790610313416,
          0.4328010380268097,
          0.43164485692977905,
          0.4314673840999603,
          0.43125295639038086,
          0.4310801029205322,
          0.432711124420166,
          0.43071016669273376,
          0.43521931767463684
        ],
        "steps": 1500,
        "optimizer": "Fixed-budget MAP; finite loss checked, no convergence claim"
      },
      "checks": {
        "treated_cells": 17811,
        "sample_units": 723,
        "scalar_vs_event_average": 1.1102230246251565e-16
      },
      "target": "All observed treated cells, equal cell weights",
      "fit_scope": "Joint untreated-cell fit",
      "inference": "Point estimates only; no standard errors computed",
      "event_study_scope": "Post-treatment only",
      "versions": {
        "numpy": "2.4.6",
        "pandas": "3.0.3",
        "jax": "0.4.38",
        "cvxpy": "1.9.1"
      },
      "mtgpax_commit": "e82cdc710cd5920e5d507c71c3bf6f556743e25e",
      "mtgpax_source_sha256": {
        "mtgpax/__init__.py": "3a2c148e44f006d0d6c4e8ba25efe44f327bfc86d8972e78ffc9135faf88d2b6",
        "mtgpax/graph_gp.py": "7b07454f45a2d58cc24bf16a115a41d8fc8c46048b348b7c5a2464631abcefb6",
        "mtgpax/estimator.py": "c5a7f85f08c9e3bc14229f7e639a1b568a623f1799646ca5fa13daf7f5da1841",
        "mtgpax/panel.py": "b470104f993281b5661a13b2d376b733c40333c8b36dc03bf852b8265adf4fd0",
        "mtgpax/trop/low_rank.py": "1ef1907fa0739a4adc745a4d95102ae65c01cb93d830b317c407ef81ff6da4ba",
        "mtgpax/trop/__init__.py": "fc116a30c975e3032b06b7615c5806c9854ba6568849bfb4f7ab34e6cc07e32f",
        "mtgpax/trop/nuclear_norm.py": "f0ab97fcd337220153061bfbf36cee331fedecbcacd398ba82778ee6843c21a8",
        "mtgpax/trop/lite.py": "cf76603dfdf5588830ba2b152e10fb9636edae10869974de76fe3e59c5384eb7",
        "mtgpax/balancing/__init__.py": "33b0dadef1e3668b856271cd752b7844537d2407f184c8fbf01e4c3e8bc75470",
        "mtgpax/balancing/estimators.py": "0160a043705f5f278a643ef8d8aa96800bb0585ed57ffaea7ac15e8adba8d6e9",
        "mtgpax/balancing/weights.py": "6bd3d6228889fb09e9fc87bb76576e7977263cc96dc75cb02b8f420da6119724",
        "mtgpax/gp/__init__.py": "ea97aeced8344c7849e11f51f78fa352174e1d16c459d0626973f533d80e2970",
        "mtgpax/gp/laplacian.py": "25375b34fff0799f2bd13e0e909f82e01c635b1bd339c4d90ed76f8f75f0e8fe",
        "mtgpax/gp/map.py": "a5e7bd4c3c38899b4e79ca200f8c10b54d4449ddbbbea8c42eed22c8c2dec3f0",
        "mtgpax/gp/exact.py": "e2da4509f19545fdbb1fde46af70b6151678edfab8367867c01ea486332e795d",
        "mtgpax/gp/kernels.py": "7a5b067e861865063f8c51ac3e94da318c09285df36dfb5dfc654e81c4506e63"
      },
      "seconds": 4.533340540714562
    },
    {
      "method": "TROP lite",
      "class": "mtgpax.trop.lite.TROPLiteEstimator",
      "parameters": {
        "ranks": [
          1
        ],
        "lambda_time_grid": [
          0,
          0.05,
          0.15,
          0.4,
          1
        ],
        "lambda_unit_grid": [
          0,
          0.5,
          1,
          2,
          4
        ],
        "max_svd_iter": 35,
        "validation_periods": 10
      },
      "estimate": -0.34767419234925234,
      "event_study": [
        {
          "event_time": 0,
          "estimate": -0.1421689743115326,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 1,
          "estimate": -0.18326891063259051,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 2,
          "estimate": -0.22524874335208422,
          "n": 529
        },
        {
          "event_time": 3,
          "estimate": -0.19679300523681276,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 4,
          "estimate": -0.16981881164169776,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 5,
          "estimate": -0.19629170831778894,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 6,
          "estimate": -0.21077977237994802,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 7,
          "estimate": -0.21479635458707555,
          "n": 528
        },
        {
          "event_time": 8,
          "estimate": -0.19898539330165102,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 9,
          "estimate": -0.19161662705248098,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 10,
          "estimate": -0.17746265635963593,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 11,
          "estimate": -0.21252057118697687,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 12,
          "estimate": -0.23656567586090518,
          "n": 516
        },
        {
          "event_time": 13,
          "estimate": -0.2643336949378427,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 14,
          "estimate": -0.31613985600691336,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 15,
          "estimate": -0.251006287331769,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 16,
          "estimate": -0.3444333942085668,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 17,
          "estimate": -0.396208644384181,
          "n": 515
        },
        {
          "event_time": 18,
          "estimate": -0.4487621750387571,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 19,
          "estimate": -0.45911002269169865,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 20,
          "estimate": -0.51194705531489,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 21,
          "estimate": -0.514201032461038,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 22,
          "estimate": -0.5275120608241779,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 23,
          "estimate": -0.5223977036309964,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 24,
          "estimate": -0.5173826754558969,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 25,
          "estimate": -0.43813316734579116,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 26,
          "estimate": -0.45042387330668987,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 27,
          "estimate": -0.5273733368035259,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 28,
          "estimate": -0.5480095745227427,
          "n": 500
        },
        {
          "event_time": 29,
          "estimate": -0.5750120134708561,
          "n": 499
        },
        {
          "event_time": 30,
          "estimate": -0.41116157297677125,
          "n": 417
        },
        {
          "event_time": 31,
          "estimate": -0.4646465977325973,
          "n": 413
        },
        {
          "event_time": 32,
          "estimate": -0.5061499433282068,
          "n": 413
        },
        {
          "event_time": 33,
          "estimate": -0.5801254574448593,
          "n": 406
        },
        {
          "event_time": 34,
          "estimate": -0.6386374215011448,
          "n": 360
        },
        {
          "event_time": 35,
          "estimate": -0.5927754579872692,
          "n": 279
        },
        {
          "event_time": 36,
          "estimate": 0.8024007937641587,
          "n": 24
        },
        {
          "event_time": 37,
          "estimate": 1.3018127860603086,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 38,
          "estimate": 1.1773034812952157,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 39,
          "estimate": 1.3546731735321333,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 40,
          "estimate": 1.423727325582871,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 41,
          "estimate": 1.5045818929788932,
          "n": 14
        },
        {
          "event_time": 42,
          "estimate": 1.4955251756796326,
          "n": 13
        },
        {
          "event_time": 43,
          "estimate": 1.3353405747844442,
          "n": 13
        },
        {
          "event_time": 44,
          "estimate": 1.316554458259335,
          "n": 11
        },
        {
          "event_time": 45,
          "estimate": 1.1693793635020406,
          "n": 11
        }
      ],
      "diagnostics": [
        {
          "adoption_period": 8,
          "treated_units": 11,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.8836297935988366,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.15,
            "lambda_unit": 1.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.017284997615948487
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 10,
          "treated_units": 2,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.9467473333973618,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 2.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.03749170652602321
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 12,
          "treated_units": 1,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.6728449936731126,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.4,
            "lambda_unit": 0.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.17157052591736616
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 17,
          "treated_units": 10,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.2511635143787723,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.0,
            "lambda_unit": 0.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.005929777293215357
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 18,
          "treated_units": 255,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.49894026327833685,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 4.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.0016409967032453446
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 19,
          "treated_units": 81,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.24107268512725086,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.15,
            "lambda_unit": 0.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.0012699618764051926
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 20,
          "treated_units": 46,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.07830321353481977,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.0,
            "lambda_unit": 0.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.004147006353644529
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 21,
          "treated_units": 7,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.1239402522717272,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 0.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.009709942225648225
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 23,
          "treated_units": 4,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.015464176348342884,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 2.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.016109481432685258
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 24,
          "treated_units": 82,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.6671856332216121,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 0.5
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.003799647330669371
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 25,
          "treated_units": 1,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": 0.028911693404105276,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 1.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.0007224955523610864
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 36,
          "treated_units": 15,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.23755854027728077,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 0.15,
            "lambda_unit": 2.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.002336315234628212
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 41,
          "treated_units": 1,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.2140236703441338,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 2.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.00866528993552819
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 46,
          "treated_units": 12,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.2633774342131206,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 4.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.0010224342243087864
        },
        {
          "adoption_period": 51,
          "treated_units": 1,
          "donor_units": 194,
          "estimate": -0.23373595873917394,
          "selected_parameters": {
            "rank": 1,
            "lambda_time": 1.0,
            "lambda_unit": 1.0
          },
          "validation_mse": 0.0028964967674959415
        }
      ],
      "checks": {
        "treated_cells": 17811,
        "sample_units": 723,
        "scalar_vs_event_average": 5.551115123125783e-17
      },
      "target": "All observed treated cells, equal cell weights",
      "fit_scope": "Separate cohort means plus never-treated donor units",
      "inference": "Point estimates only; no standard errors computed",
      "event_study_scope": "Post-treatment only",
      "versions": {
        "numpy": "2.4.6",
        "pandas": "3.0.3",
        "jax": "0.4.38",
        "cvxpy": "1.9.1"
      },
      "mtgpax_commit": "e82cdc710cd5920e5d507c71c3bf6f556743e25e",
      "mtgpax_source_sha256": {
        "mtgpax/__init__.py": "3a2c148e44f006d0d6c4e8ba25efe44f327bfc86d8972e78ffc9135faf88d2b6",
        "mtgpax/graph_gp.py": "7b07454f45a2d58cc24bf16a115a41d8fc8c46048b348b7c5a2464631abcefb6",
        "mtgpax/estimator.py": "c5a7f85f08c9e3bc14229f7e639a1b568a623f1799646ca5fa13daf7f5da1841",
        "mtgpax/panel.py": "b470104f993281b5661a13b2d376b733c40333c8b36dc03bf852b8265adf4fd0",
        "mtgpax/trop/low_rank.py": "1ef1907fa0739a4adc745a4d95102ae65c01cb93d830b317c407ef81ff6da4ba",
        "mtgpax/trop/__init__.py": "fc116a30c975e3032b06b7615c5806c9854ba6568849bfb4f7ab34e6cc07e32f",
        "mtgpax/trop/nuclear_norm.py": "f0ab97fcd337220153061bfbf36cee331fedecbcacd398ba82778ee6843c21a8",
        "mtgpax/trop/lite.py": "cf76603dfdf5588830ba2b152e10fb9636edae10869974de76fe3e59c5384eb7",
        "mtgpax/balancing/__init__.py": "33b0dadef1e3668b856271cd752b7844537d2407f184c8fbf01e4c3e8bc75470",
        "mtgpax/balancing/estimators.py": "0160a043705f5f278a643ef8d8aa96800bb0585ed57ffaea7ac15e8adba8d6e9",
        "mtgpax/balancing/weights.py": "6bd3d6228889fb09e9fc87bb76576e7977263cc96dc75cb02b8f420da6119724",
        "mtgpax/gp/__init__.py": "ea97aeced8344c7849e11f51f78fa352174e1d16c459d0626973f533d80e2970",
        "mtgpax/gp/laplacian.py": "25375b34fff0799f2bd13e0e909f82e01c635b1bd339c4d90ed76f8f75f0e8fe",
        "mtgpax/gp/map.py": "a5e7bd4c3c38899b4e79ca200f8c10b54d4449ddbbbea8c42eed22c8c2dec3f0",
        "mtgpax/gp/exact.py": "e2da4509f19545fdbb1fde46af70b6151678edfab8367867c01ea486332e795d",
        "mtgpax/gp/kernels.py": "7a5b067e861865063f8c51ac3e94da318c09285df36dfb5dfc654e81c4506e63"
      },
      "seconds": 2.659049666021019
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "mtgp_counterfactual_post_outcome_invariance": 0.0,
    "trop_lite_counterfactual_post_outcome_invariance": 0.0,
    "trop_lite_residual_identity_max_error": 0.0
  },
  "provenance": {
    "prepared_panel_sha256": "41616f619946e80d7bcf446a840038bf6b7a8a343d1caf2e4cf3647ffc34752c",
    "source": "Same verified prepared sample as separate counterfactual comparison"
  }
}
