Reexamining the Impact of Family Planning Programs on US Fertility: Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X

Martha J. Bailey (2012) · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Published

October 10, 2026

import sys
from pathlib import Path

ROOT = next(
    p for p in [Path.cwd(), *Path.cwd().parents]
    if (p / "scripts/tranche50_report.py").exists()
)
sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts"))
from tranche50_report import report
report("aeraej-456", tranche="tranche100")

Martha J. Bailey (2012). American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. Table 3 col.

Collection index · Results JSON · QMD · Reproduction code

Source specification

The source headline is the binned 5–9-year effect. The template uses an unbinned treated-cell post average, preserving population weights, state-year effects, county effects and the full source control set.

Source coefficient Template on source sample Source N Template source-sample N
-1.2169 -0.21728 91110 91110

The source and comparison coefficients use different specifications or aggregation targets, as stated above; they are not an exact-replication comparison.

Role Column
Outcome gfr_nonint
Treatment policy
Unit fips
Time year
Cluster fips

11 retained control columns. R_tranpcret; R_tranpcmcare1; R_tranpcpa1; D_pct59incge10k_t; D_pct59inclt3k_t; D_60pctnonwhit_t; D_60pctrurf_t; D_60pcturban_t; D_60pctmt64years_t; D_60pctlt5years_t; allprov

Estimates below divide the outcome by its source-sample standard deviation, 25.81. Static TWFE is the treatment coefficient. Dynamic TWFE, BJS and Sun–Abraham average supported post-treatment cells by observation count. CS-DID additionally reports an equal-event-time average.

Analysis sample and treatment timing

Observations Units Treated Control units Cohorts Clusters
90990 3033 650 2383 9 3033
Sample restriction Count
unsupported prediction rows removed 57
additional rows removed 120

Adoption is the first observed treated period. Initially treated units and units without an observed minus-one baseline are excluded. Post-adoption untreated rows are excluded for switching policies. The plot shows at most 100 seeded-sample units; estimation uses the full eligible sample. Empty cells remain missing.

y__d: 100 of 3033 units shown (seed 20261008). All eligible units enter estimation. Purple: untreated; yellow: treated; white: unobserved.

Estimates

Estimator Estimate (SD) SE 95% lower 95% upper Target Status
Static TWFE -0.0082564 0.019193 -0.045889 0.029377 Coefficient estimated
Dynamic TWFE -0.022465 0.022571 -0.06672 0.02179 Treated cells estimated
BJS / did2s 0.08035 0.068565 -0.054088 0.21479 Treated cells estimated
Sun–Abraham -0.03742 0.023155 -0.082822 0.0079814 Treated cells estimated
CS-DID (equal event-time) nan nan nan nan Equal post-event times unsupported
SDID nan nan nan nan Treated cells unsupported
Matrix completion nan nan nan nan Treated cells unsupported
Horizontal ridge nan nan nan nan Treated cells unsupported
Multisynth (cohort-averaged) nan nan nan nan Treated cells unsupported
Multisynth (individual) nan nan nan nan Treated cells unsupported

Intervals use the configured clusters and the estimator’s available inference. Hollow points have no computed interval; no new refit-bootstrap batch is run.

Estimator Reason
CS-DID (equal event-time) csdid: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.
SDID sdid: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.
Matrix completion matrix-completion: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.
Horizontal ridge horizontal-ridge: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.
Multisynth (cohort-averaged) multisynth-cohort: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.
Multisynth (individual) multisynth-individual: matching the configured nonstandard fixed effects is not implemented.

Event studies

Cohort homogeneity

The imported TestingInEventStudies deviations design tests positive-event-time cohort deviations jointly. This is the homoskedastic nested-model F-test; the estimator confidence intervals above use clustered inference.

**y__d: F(140, 86322) = 4.8469; p = 3.102e-71.** Homoskedastic nested-model F. 272 design columns.

Each line is a cohort deviation. The joint test restricts positive-event-time deviations to zero; event time 0 remains unrestricted.

Fitting settings and checks

Specification Estimator Settings Pooling
y__d CS-DID {} {}
y__d SDID {} {}
y__d Matrix completion {} {}
y__d Horizontal ridge {} {}
y__d Multisynth (cohort-averaged) {} {}
y__d Multisynth (individual) {} {} 
{
  "did2s_vs_direct_imputation_max_post_difference": 8.463039901929204e-07,
  "package_aggregate_vs_estimable_cell_weights": null,
  "saturated_vs_deviations_relative_rss_difference": 1.0668726175319465e-15
}