Original collectionUnder development

Under development — library extension. This report is part of the expanded-library work, not the original collection. Source preparation, methods and results are subject to revision.

Provisional eligibility assessment — under development. PDF audit reopened this assessment; no new comparison is admitted. Table 1 has an EC10/Spain-by-post-1986 policy DiD, separate from continuous tariff/uncertainty and structural analyses. The existing template chose an author binary accession specification. Recheck that target on its own merits. This working assessment is not fully vetted and may change. See the report below for its recorded replication or assessment status. Provisional eligibility log

Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence

Kyle Handley; Nuno Limao (2015) · American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

import sys
from pathlib import Path

ROOT = next(
    p for p in [Path.cwd(), *Path.cwd().parents]
    if (p / "scripts/tranche50_report.py").exists()
)
sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts"))
from tranche50_report import report

report("aeraej-420", tranche="tranche150")

Kyle Handley; Nuno Limao (2015). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Table 1, column 1: EU-10 accession and aggregate exports.

Collection index · Results JSON · QMD · Reproduction code

Source specification

This is the paper’s original binary-accession specification in Table 1, not its continuous-uncertainty headline in Table 3. The EU-Spain interaction and macro controls are retained. Source point estimates are replicated; comparison inference clusters by country rather than using the source HC1 covariance.

Source coefficient	Template on source sample	Source N	Template source-sample N
0.23188	0.23188	1305	1304

Source-to-template coefficient difference: 4.27e-14, in original outcome units.

Role	Column
Outcome	ln_total_all
Treatment	eu_10_post
Unit	country
Time	year
Cluster	country

4 retained control columns. eu_es_post; ln_rgdp; ln_def; ln_ex

Estimates below divide the outcome by its source-sample standard deviation, 3.06543. Static TWFE is the treatment coefficient. Dynamic TWFE, BJS and Sun–Abraham average supported post-treatment cells by observation count. CS-DID additionally reports an equal-event-time average.

Analysis sample and treatment timing

Observations	Units	Treated	Control units	Cohorts	Clusters
1303	138	9	129	1	138

Sample restriction	Count
additional rows removed	1

Adoption is the first observed treated period. Initially treated units and units without an observed minus-one baseline are excluded. Post-adoption untreated rows are excluded for switching policies. The plot shows at most 100 seeded-sample units; estimation uses the full eligible sample. Empty cells remain missing.

y__d: 100 of 138 units shown (seed 20261008). All eligible units enter estimation. Purple: untreated; yellow: treated; white: unobserved.

Estimates

Estimator	Estimate (SD)	SE	95% lower	95% upper	Target	Status
Static TWFE	0.075644	0.035468	0.0055075	0.14578	Coefficient	estimated
Dynamic TWFE	0.034941	0.03725	-0.038718	0.1086	Treated cells	estimated
BJS / did2s	0.076517	0.035222	0.0068691	0.14617	Treated cells	estimated
Sun–Abraham	0.034941	0.03725	-0.038718	0.1086	Treated cells	estimated
CS-DID (equal event-time)	nan	nan	nan	nan	Equal post-event times	unidentified
SDID	nan	nan	nan	nan	Treated cells	unsupported
Matrix completion	nan	nan	nan	nan	Treated cells	unsupported
Horizontal ridge	nan	nan	nan	nan	Treated cells	unsupported
Multisynth (cohort-averaged)	nan	nan	nan	nan	Treated cells	unsupported
Multisynth (individual)	nan	nan	nan	nan	Treated cells	unsupported

Intervals use the configured clusters and the estimator’s available inference. Hollow points have no computed interval; no new refit-bootstrap batch is run.

Estimator	Reason
CS-DID (equal event-time)	UnidentifiedTarget: CS-DID cannot estimate 5 observed post-treatment group-time cells with the configured controls; no target cells were dropped. See csdid-group-time.json and package log.
SDID	sdid: this adapter does not implement covariate adjustment; controls retained.
Matrix completion	matrix-completion: this adapter does not implement covariate adjustment; controls retained.
Horizontal ridge	horizontal-ridge: this adapter does not implement covariate adjustment; controls retained.
Multisynth (cohort-averaged)	multisynth-cohort: this adapter does not implement covariate adjustment; controls retained.
Multisynth (individual)	multisynth-individual: this adapter does not implement covariate adjustment; controls retained.

Event studies

Cohort homogeneity

The imported TestingInEventStudies deviations design tests positive-event-time cohort deviations jointly. This is the homoskedastic nested-model F-test; the estimator confidence intervals above use clustered inference.

**y__d: homogeneity test not identified.** Only one treated cohort remains on the common supported sample.

Fitting settings and checks

Specification	Estimator	Settings	Pooling
y__d	CS-DID	{}	{}
y__d	SDID	{}	{}
y__d	Matrix completion	{}	{}
y__d	Horizontal ridge	{}	{}
y__d	Multisynth (cohort-averaged)	{}	{}
y__d	Multisynth (individual)	{}	{}

{
  "did2s_vs_direct_imputation_max_post_difference": 3.115375720591507e-08,
  "package_aggregate_vs_estimable_cell_weights": null
}